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Serenity Tracker
@aleabitoreddit · AI supply-chain chokepoints, explained for retail
Public analyst · X: @aleabitoreddit · 127k+ followers

He doesn't buy Nvidia.
He buys the three obscure companies Nvidia can't build a GPU without.

Serenity is a former Reddit WSB trader and AI/photonics engineer who built a 127k-follower following on X by mapping the AI supply chain to chokepoint nodes — obscure, vertically-integrated suppliers without which the hyperscaler AI buildout literally stops. Self-reported 1Y track record: +122% on a peak of +501% YTD (drawn down since). No fund, no 13F — just public theses on X, validated by subsequent earnings and industry warnings.

Follow on X → Framework: Chokepoint Theory Sector: AI photonics + supply chain Style: concentrated, ~1.4x margin
1Y return
+122%
Self-reported · 04/2026
Peak YTD
+501%
Since drawn down
Chokepoints mapped
7
Layers of AI photonics
Names called
20+
Many up 100–400% since
The framework
"The Strait of AXTI"

Just as 20% of global oil passes through one strait, the AI photonics buildout depends on a handful of single-vendor or duopoly chokepoints. Find them, own them, hold them.

The edge
"Only buys what he's touched"

Former AI research scientist + RISC-V Foundation member + silicon-photonics engineer. Reads the substrate-level technical literature retail (and most analysts) won't.

The validation
"Frontran institutions"

Called $AXTI's InP substrate bottleneck a year before IntelliEPI's CEO publicly warned of an "indium phosphide supply shortage" in Q1 2026. Earnings have repeatedly confirmed.

The chokepoint map

Seven supply-chain layers where compute-power AI photonics has a structural bottleneck. The ticker on each row is the publicly-stated chokepoint owner.
1
Raw materials — gallium, indium, arsenic
$AXTI · vertically integrated
Sourcing and refinement of the rare metals every InP wafer starts with. Concentrated in China; AXT processes its own.
2
pBN crucibles & growth equipment
Shin-Etsu Chemical · JP
Pyrolytic boron nitride crucibles that grow the InP boules. Single-vendor equipment chokepoint.
3
InP substrate processing — "the crown jewel"
$AXTI · + an unnamed monopoly/duopoly
Where the photonics supply chain pinches hardest. IntelliEPI's CEO publicly confirmed an "InP shortage" in Q1 2026 — a year after Serenity's call.
4
CW lasers — light source for Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
$SIVE · Sivers Semi
The 2027–2028 inflection. CPO replaces pluggable optics; Sivers owns the laser-source choke at ~$290M cap.
5
Optical transceivers — assembly
$AAOI · $COHR · $LITE · Innolight
The visible end of the chain. Nvidia's $2B optical investment locked in capacity here ahead of supply shocks.
6
Testing & qualification
$AEHR · Aehr Test Systems
Photonics test equipment — "early $AAOI stage" before the volume ramp. Recently won qualification orders from a leading transceiver vendor.
7
Optical cable & fiber (HCF + traditional)
$GLW · Prysmian · Furukawa
The plumbing. Traditional fiber + new hollow-core fiber for low-latency interconnect between AI clusters.

Every name he's publicly called

Filter by category. Star the ones you want to track. Theses paraphrased from public posts — see sources.

The three-phase rotation

His framework for how institutional money flows through the AI supply chain.
Phase 1 · Done
Memory / HBM
"Caught the tail end"

$SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU. Institutions rotated in late 2025 / early 2026.

Phase 2 · Now
Optical transceivers
"Frontran institutions"

$AAOI, $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR. Many up 100–400% since first posts.

Phase 3 · Emerging
SiPh / ELS / CPO
"Adding heavily now"

$SIVE, $AAOI (as ELS player), $POET, Celestial AI. 2027–2028 CPO inflection.

The implication for retail: by the time the next phase is consensus, the asymmetric upside is gone. Watch what Phase 3 names get added to before institutions pile in.

Track record — calls that actually played out

Receipts. So you can calibrate.
$AXTI
Validated
Called the InP substrate bottleneck a year early

IntelliEPI's CEO publicly confirmed "InP shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure" in Q1 2026 earnings — exactly what Serenity called.

$RPI
+72% over 2 sessions
Raspberry Pi demand-spike thesis

Called +55% revenue growth when sell-side consensus was +14%. Earnings printed +58%. Stock +44.76% on 3/31 and +27.43% on 4/1.

$AAOI
Multi-bagger from entry
Entered at ~$84, called "way too cheap"

Full transceiver supply chain + ELSFP build for CPO. Said "10x revenue from optical transceivers in H2 2027."

$LNG
+52.74% YTD
"Most obvious" energy-war pick

Cheniere Energy as the cleanest US LNG export beneficiary of geopolitical disruption.

$CVX
+35.44% YTD
Energy-war supermajor

Bought as an Iran-tension hedge.

$IREN
Flipped
Was long → went bearish after $6B ATM

A reminder that he updates his theses when the cap structure changes against him.

Track record is self-reported and from public posts. The wins above are not a complete sample — losers and unconfirmed calls are not shown here. Calibrate accordingly.

How to follow live

This page is a snapshot. The actual stream of theses is on X.
Primary
@aleabitoreddit on X
Real-time thesis posts, replies, and chokepoint maps. Turn on notifications.
Long-form
Singularity Research Fund essay
The most thorough third-party synthesis of his framework and positions.
Performance
PhotonCap: +122% 1Y writeup
Independent breakdown of his returns and the "engineer who only buys what he's touched" angle.

Before you copy a single trade — read this

No fund, no 13F
Unlike a hedge fund manager, Serenity has no regulatory obligation to disclose holdings. What you see is what he chooses to post.
Position sizes are unknown
Sometimes he discloses entry price (e.g. $AAOI @ ~$84). Share counts and % of portfolio are not visible.
He moves in real-time
His $IREN flip shows he changes theses when conditions change. By the time you read a tweet, he may have rotated.
Survivorship in track record
Self-reported wins; losers and stop-outs are not posted with the same visibility. Calibrate the +122% accordingly.

Sources

All theses on this page are paraphrased from public posts. Verify against primary sources:

Not affiliated with Serenity, AleaBito, or @aleabitoreddit. Not investment advice. Some theses may be out of date by the time you read them — always check his most recent posts before acting.

To update: edit the DATA array near the bottom of this file when new theses are posted, or when an existing call resolves.